An Integrated Methodology and Novel Index for Assessing Distributed Photovoltaic Deployment in Energy Transition Pathways: Evidence from Ecuador

This study aims to develop and apply a novel methodology to assess the scope, benefits and challenges of distributed photovoltaic generation (DG-PV). The research provides a replicable framework applicable to any country, as long as official energy consumption data are available and the nation is seeking to modify its energy matrix as part of a sustainable transition through the design of renewable-energy-based policies. To support the viability of the proposal, data from the Ecuadorian electrical system for the period between 2014 and 2024 were analyzed using technical, operational and socio-economic indicators defined in the methodology. These include renewable participation, energy diversification, DG-PV, technical efficiency, regulatory index, operational resilience and electrical coverage. The investigation concludes with the definition of a Distributed Photovoltaic Integration Index (DPII), which can be used to measure a country’s progress toward the proper implementation of renewable energy. The DPII supports informed decision-making by allowing utilities and policymakers to prioritize distributed photovoltaic integration and compare alternative energy transition scenarios. In the case of Ecuador, a DPII of 0.170 is obtained for 2024 compared to a value of 0 for 2014. This result is mainly due to an increase in renewable energy participation (P1), which rose from 0.49 to 0.76 during this period, largely supported by hydropower expansion. This value was obtained because over the last ten years, Ecuador has committed to implementing active policies that incorporate renewable energies, as well as other aspects such as technical efficiency and the expansion of electrical coverage. This approach offers a replicable quantitative tool for evaluating the integration of DG-PV, providing key information for energy planning and for the formulation of policies that promote the decarbonization, decentralization and digitalization of the national electrical system.