A MONOTONIC TREND ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE USING MANN-KENDALL TEST (MK) OVER NORTH-EASTERN REGION OF NIGERIA

One of the key concerns addressed in the last 20 years was climate change, of which temperature is one of the indicating variables. According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), hydrocarbon resources have been found at the Kolmani River II in the Northeast. The relative permeability of gas increases while the relative permeability of oil barely changes as temperature rises. Foamy oil responds well to thermal recovery at an intermediate temperature, but foamy behavior can be inhibited at much higher temperatures, which seems to offset the benefits of viscosity reduction. The goal of the current study was to examine the temporal variations in temperature during 41 years in North-eastern Nigeria (i.e 1981 to 2022). A non-parametric statistical technique called the Mann-Kendall test was used to examine trends in the yearly and seasonal temperature series. This test is useful for identifying patterns in data over time. In conclusion, the yearly mean temperature series appears to have a significant trend, as indicated by the statistically significant Mann-Kendall test statistics of 4.9864 and the associated 2-sided p-value of 0.0000006152. The dataset exhibits a positive trend, as indicated by the Sen’s slope of 0.05625. This suggests that surface air temperature is rising in Nigeria. Majority of Nigerians depend on temperature-sensitive economic activities; hence the country is likely among those most vulnerable to the negative effects of global warming. As a result, the models created for this study may help to forecast temperatures over the areas it examined.