MRKAN: A Multi-Scale Network for Dual-Polarization Radar Multi-Parameter Extrapolation

Severe convective weather is marked by abrupt onset, rapid evolution, and substantial destructive potential, posing major threats to economic activities and human safety. To address this challenge, this study proposes MRKAN, a multi-parameter prediction algorithm for dual-polarization radar that integrates Mamba, radial basis functions (RBFs), and the Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN). The method predicts radar reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and the specific differential phase, enabling a refined depiction of the dynamic structure of severe convective systems. MRKAN incorporates four key innovations. First, a Cross-Scan Mamba module is designed to enhance global spatiotemporal dependencies through point-wise modeling across multiple complementary scans. Second, a Multi-Order KAN module is developed that employs multi-order β-spline functions to overcome the linear limitations of convolution kernels and to achieve high-order representations of nonlinear local features. Third, a Gaussian and Inverse Multiquadratic RBF module is constructed to extract mesoscale features using a combination of Gaussian radial basis functions and Inverse Multiquadratic radial basis functions. Finally, a Multi-Scale Feature Fusion module is designed to integrate global, local, and mesoscale information, thereby enhancing multi-scale adaptive modeling capability. Experimental results show that MRKAN significantly outperforms mainstream methods across multiple key metrics and yields a more accurate depiction of the spatiotemporal evolution of severe convective weather.