Convolutional Autoencoder-Based Method for Predicting Faults of Cyber-Physical Systems Based on the Extraction of a Semantic State Vector

Modern industrial equipment is a cyber-physical system (CPS) consisting of physical production components and digital controls. Lowering maintenance costs and increasing availability is important to improve its efficiency. Modern methods, based on solving event prediction problem, in particular, prediction of remaining useful life (RUL), are used as a crucial step in a framework of reliability-centered maintenance to increase efficiency. But modern methods of RUL forecasting fall short when dealing with real-world scenarios, where CPS are described by multidimensional continuous high-frequency data with working cycles with variable duration. To overcome this problem, we propose a new method for fault prediction, which is based on extraction of semantic state vectors (SSVs) from working cycles of equipment. To implement SSV extraction, a new method, based on convolutional autoencoder and extraction of hidden state, is proposed. In this method, working cycles are detected in input data stream, and then they are converted to images, on which an autoencoder is trained. The output of an intermediate layer of an autoencoder is extracted and processed into SSVs. SSVs are then combined into a time series on which RUL is forecasted. After optimization of hyperparameters, the proposed method shows the following results: RMSE = 1.799, MAE = 1.374. These values are significantly more accurate than those obtained using existing methods: RMSE = 14.02 and MAE = 10.71. Therefore, SSV extraction is a viable technique for forecasting RUL.