Global warming enhances soybean suitability and yield potential in the mid-high latitude Amur River Basin

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean yield potential under climate change is crucial for improving crop productivity and guiding adaptive agricultural strategies in climatically sensitive regions. However, systematic assessments that integrate both historical and future climate conditions with crop suitability remain limited. In this study, we employed the Agro-Ecological Zones model to quantify soybean yield potential and climatic suitability across the Amur River Basin from 1980 to 2100, integrating historical observations and CMIP6 climate projections. Results indicate a continuous increase in yield potential under both rain-fed and irrigated conditions. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, rain-fed yields rise by 0.05 and 0.10 t ha decade −1 , while irrigated yields increase by 0.04 and 0.12 t ha −1 decade −1 . China and Russia show consistent productivity gains, especially in the Russian Far East under high-emission scenarios, whereas yield improvements in Mongolia depend strongly on irrigation due to persistent water limitations. Soybean suitability exhibits pronounced northwestward expansion driven by enhanced thermal and hydrological conditions. Moderately suitable areas expand by 135.97–185.97% under rain-fed conditions and 106.51–132.10% under irrigation. The suitability centroid migrates northwestward by up to 320.5 km by 2100, remaining within Heilongjiang Province. These findings highlight significant opportunities for soybean expansion in northern high-latitude zones under climate warming. To harness this potential and strengthen system resilience, we recommend: (i) suitability-informed land reallocation, (ii) targeted investment in precision irrigation, and (iii) adaptive crop management aligned with shifting agro-climatic conditions, alongside enhanced transboundary cooperation among China, Russia, and Mongolia. • Global warming creates new high-latitude soybean production frontiers in the Amur River Basin. • Soybean yield potential responds unevenly to climate change across China, Russia, and Mongolia. • Thermal conditions dominate suitability expansion, while moisture constraints modulate regional production responses.