Spatial Patterns and Drivers of Ecosystem Service Values in the Qinghai Lake Basin, Northwestern China (2000–2020)

As a vital ecological security barrier and climate regulator in northwestern China, the spatial patterns and evolving formation mechanisms of ecosystem services within the Qinghai Lake basin hold significant strategic value for ecological conservation and national park development in the region. This study selected land use data during 2000–2020, integrating the equivalent factor method, spatial correlation analysis, and the geodetector approach to systematically investigate the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of ESV in the Qinghai Lake basin and its corresponding driving mechanisms. The results indicate the following: (1) During the period 2000–2020, grassland consistently constituted the primary land cover category within the Qinghai Lake Basin, accounting for over 60% of the total area; water bodies (16.67%) and unused land (16.56%) represented the secondary land use categories. Over this twenty-year period, the total ESV exhibited a slight increasing trend, rising from USD 30.30 × 108 to USD 30.75 × 108, representing a growth of 0.31%. Regulating services constituted the primary component of ESV. The highest contribution to ESV originated from water bodies, with grassland ranking second. (2) ESV displayed a spatial arrangement marked by “high values in the lake center and low values in the surrounding areas” and “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.” Its spatial correlation exhibits a pronounced positive relationship. The number of units classified as high-high clusters (primarily water bodies at low elevations) and low-low clusters (mainly grasslands and unused land at high elevations) both increased over the study period, indicating a continuous intensification of ESV spatial agglomeration. (3) Results from the geographical detector reveal that both natural and anthropogenic factors collectively drive the spatial variation in ESV, with natural factors exhibiting stronger explanatory capacity. Among these, elevation and temperature are identified as the dominant drivers of ESV spatiotemporal differentiation. The combined effect of two interacting factors surpasses the influence exerted by any single factor in isolation. This research clarifies that the spatial distribution of ESV in the Qinghai Lake Basin, which features “high values in the lake center and low values in the surrounding areas” as well as “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest,” is jointly shaped by the combined control of vertical zonality governed by topographic and climatic factors and the spatial differentiation of human activities. In low-altitude lakeshore zones, ESV rose as a consequence of water body expansion and the enforcement of ecological conservation measures, leading to the emergence of high-value clusters. In contrast, ESV improvement in high-elevation regions remained limited, constrained by fragile natural conditions and minimal human intervention. The insights derived from this research offer a scientific foundation for refining the “one core, four zones, one ring, multiple points” functional zoning framework of the Qinghai Lake National Park, as well as for developing tailored management approaches suited to distinct elevation-based regions.