Nonuniform variations of drought driven by spatially heterogeneous climate changes

Under global warming, the understanding of regional drought heterogeneity, drivers, and future persistence remains limited. Utilizing the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI, 2001–2020) and combining Theil–Sen trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, partial correlation analysis, and Hurst exponent, this study analyzes global drought patterns, drivers, and persistence. Global drought changes exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, exemplified by persistent intensification in Europe and an initial increase followed by subsequent mitigation in the Amazon. In terms of driving factors, drought is positively correlated with temperature in high-latitude regions (e.g. North America and Siberia), while it is primarily controlled by precipitation in arid regions. Compared to the period of 2001–2010, drought intensification became more widespread during 2011–2020, and its persistent nature suggests that most affected areas will continue to face sustained drought risks in the future. These findings underscore the necessity for region-specific adaptation strategies and provide valuable insights for drought risk assessment.