The Calculation Method of Time-Series Reduction Coefficients for Wind Power Generation in Ultra-High-Altitude Areas

In the preliminary design stage of wind farms, the theoretical energy output must be adjusted by multiple reduction factors to estimate the actual grid-connected power. As renewable energy becomes increasingly integrated into electricity markets, the conventional approach using static, averaged reduction coefficients for annual yield estimation can no longer meet the market’s demand for high-resolution power time series. Addressing this gap, the novelty of this paper lies in shifting the focus from total annual estimation to hourly-level dynamic allocation. This paper proposes a time-series reduction coefficient evaluation method based on the time-varying entropy weight method (TV-EWM). Under the assumption that the total annual reduction quantity adheres to standard design specifications, this method utilizes long-term wind measurement data, integrates unique ultra-high-altitude wind resource characteristics, and constructs a scenario-based indicator system. By quantifying the coupling relationships between key meteorological variables and incorporating a dynamic weighting mechanism, the proposed approach achieves hourly refined reduction estimation for theoretical power output. Comparative analysis was conducted against the traditional static average reduction method. Results indicate that, compared to the traditional average reduction method, the TV-EWM approach significantly enhances the model’s ability to capture seasonal variability, increasing the coefficient of determination (R2) by 4.19% to 0.7061. Furthermore, it demonstrates higher stability in error control, reducing the Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) by 4.51% to 15.45%. The TV-EWM more accurately captures the temporal evolution and coupling effects between meteorological elements and curtailed generation under various reduction scenarios, retains full-load operational features, and enhances physical interpretability and time responsiveness, providing a new analytical framework for market-oriented power generation assessment.