Identification of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand in Typical Coal-Grain Overlapping Area, Eastern China

Investigating the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns and driving factors of ecosystem services (ESs) supply and demand is of great significance for early warning of ecosystem imbalance risks and identifying regional natural resource supply–demand conflicts. This study takes the typical coal-grain overlapping area (CGOA) in Eastern China as the research object, dividing it into mining townships (MT) and non-mining townships (NMT) for comparative analysis. By integrating the InVEST model, ESs supply–demand ratio (ESDR) index, four-quadrant model, and the XGBoost-SHAP algorithm, the study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving mechanisms of ESs supply and demand from 2000 to 2020. The results indicated that: (1) grain production (GP) service maintained a continuous supply–demand surplus, with the ESDR of NMT areas surpassing that of MT areas in 2020. The ESDR of water yield (WY) service was significantly influenced by interannual fluctuations in supply, showing deficits in multiple years. The decline in carbon sequestration (CS) service and sharp increase in carbon emissions led to a continuous decrease in the ESDR of CS service, with MT areas facing a higher risk of carbon deficit. (2) The spatial heterogeneity of ESs supply and demand was significant, with GP and CS services exhibiting a typical urban-rural dual spatial structure, and the overall region was dominated by the Type II ESs supply–demand matching (ESDM) pattern. The ESDR of WY service generally decreases from Southeast to Northwest across the region. with the Type IV ESDM pattern dominating in most years. (3) Human activities are the core driving force shaping the supply–demand patterns of ESs. Among these, land use intensity exhibits a nonlinear effect, high population density demonstrates an inhibitory effect, and MT areas are more significantly affected by coal mining subsidence. Natural environmental factors primarily drive WY service. The research findings can provide a scientific reference for the coordinated allocation of regional natural resources and the sustainable development of the human–land system.