The Argument from Success

Abstract The paper infers from the success of a religion to its truth. The first premise is that if a religion is true then probably it is successful. Drawing on Plato, it is shown that religion aims at friendship between the divine and the human. Friendship requires likeness, and human beings are like the divine by being ethically good. So, religion aims to foster ethical virtue and to shape social institutions in ethically positive ways, and these as extensively as possible. A true religion should be successful in these aims, since divine beings are potent. The second premise is that if a religion is false then probably it is unsuccessful. There are many religions. A small cluster stand out in their success. So, the background probability of failure is high. So, learning that a religion is successful should raise our credence that it is true, since its success is unsurprising if it is true and surprising if it is false. The third premise is that Christianity is a successful religion by the criteria offered, raising the probability that Christianity is true. Eleven objections are answered.