Why Not Condemn China and Russia? Global South Reactions to Norm Contestation and Implications for the LIO

Abstract The liberal international order (LIO) is transitioning, marked by rising non-Western powers and norm contestation. However, current research often overlooks how varying reactions to norm contestation shape this process. This raises two questions: Why do states differ in their responses to norm challenges, and what implications do these patterns hold for the LIO? This study addresses this gap by advancing a theoretical framework that positions reactions to norm contestations as key indicators of order transition, arguing that patterns of alignment and divergence reveal fluctuating norm strength and signal an order’s transitionality. Employing fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the study analyzes 28 non-Western middle powers’ responses to Russia’s actions in Ukraine (2022) and Crimea (2014) and China’s human rights practices in Xinjiang and Tibet. The analysis identifies four pathways to norm alignment or acquiescence, highlighting the combined influence of external dependency on China or Russia, regime type, membership in non-Western organizations, and post-colonial experience. Findings reveal a disparity between responses to sovereignty challenges, which are increasingly condemned, and human rights controversies, where tolerance or even support for alternative interpretations is growing, suggesting a fragmentation of the human rights (sub)order. This research contributes a novel theoretical framework for analyzing the LIO’s transition, demonstrating how oscillating norm strength, reflected in reactions to norm contestations, provides crucial insights into the processual nature of order change and the potential emergence of alternative normative structures.