Time Series Analysis and Periodicity Analysis and Forecasting of the Dniester River Flow Using Spectral, SSA, and Hybrid Models

This study applies spectral analysis and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to mean annual runoff of the Dniester River for 1950–2024 to identify dominant periodic components governing the hydrological regime of this transboundary basin shared by Ukraine and Moldova. The novelty lies in a basin-specific integration in the first systematic application of a combined spectral–SSA framework to the Dniester River, enabling consistent characterization of runoff variability and assessment of large-scale natural drivers. Time series from three gauging stations are analysed to develop data-driven runoff models and medium-term forecasts. Four stable groups of periodic variability are identified, with characteristic timescales of approximately 30, 11, 3–5.8, and 2 years, corresponding to major atmospheric–oceanic oscillations (AMO, NAO, PDO, ENSO, QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle. Cross-spectral and coherence analyses reveal a statistically significant relationship between solar activity and river discharge, with an estimated lag of about 2 years. SSA reconstructions explain more than 80% of discharge variance, indicating high model reliability. Forecast comparisons show that spectral methods tend to amplify long-term trends, CNN–LSTM models produce conservative trajectories, while a hybrid ensemble approach provides the most balanced and physically interpretable projections. Ensemble forecasts indicate reduced runoff during 2025–2028, followed by recovery in 2029–2034, supporting long-term water-resources planning and climate adaptation.