The Transcritical CO2 Cycle: Promise, Pitfalls, and Prospects

As a natural refrigerant, CO2 shows significant potential in sustainable thermal engineering due to its environmental safety and economic viability. While the transcritical CO2 cycle demonstrates strong performance in heating, low-temperature applications, and integration with renewable energy sources, its widespread adoption is hindered by key challenges at the application level. These include: high sensitivity of system efficiency to operating conditions, which creates an “efficiency hump” and narrows the optimal operating window; increased component costs and technical challenges for key devices such as multi-channel valves due to high-pressure requirements; and complex system control with limited intelligent solutions currently integrated. Despite these challenges, the transcritical CO2 cycle holds unique value in enabling synergistic energy conversion. Its ability to efficiently match and cascade different energy grades makes it particularly suitable for data center cooling, industrial combined cooling and heating, and solar–thermal hybrid systems, positioning it as an indispensable technology in future low-carbon energy systems. To fully realize its potential, development efforts must focus on high-value applications and key technological breakthroughs. Priority should be given to demonstrating its use in fields where it holds a distinct advantage, such as low-temperature refrigeration and high-temperature industrial heat pumps, to establish commercially viable models. Concurrently, core technologies—including adaptive intelligent control algorithms, high-efficiency expanders, and cost-effective pressure-resistant components—must be advanced. Supportive policies, encompassing energy efficiency standards, safety regulations, and fiscal incentives, will be essential to facilitate the transition from demonstration projects to widespread industrial adoption.