Climate Change Impact on Cooling Energy Demand of Major Airports in Nigeria

Rising global temperatures due to climate change are intensifying the cooling energy demands of critical infrastructure, including airports. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the cooling energy needs of five major international airports in Nigeria (Abuja, Enugu, Kano, Lagos, and Port Harcourt) using cooling degree days (CDDs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble climate projections. Monthly and annual CDD calculated with a base temperature of 18°C were obtained from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) at a spatial resolution of 25 km × 25 km. Percentage changes in CDD were analyzed for three future periods (2040–2059, 2060–2079, and 2080–2099) relative to the historical baseline (1995–2014) under moderate-( SSP2-4.5) and high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) pathways. Results indicate a consistent rise in CDD across all airports and future periods, with greater increases under SSP5-8.5. The highest CDD increases occur during peak summer months (June–August), straining cooling systems and infrastructure. Coastal airports like Lagos and Port Harcourt face significant absolute increases due to high baseline temperatures, while Kano exhibits the largest percentage changes, driven by its hot and dry climate. Late-century projections (2080–2099) show CDD increases exceeding 60% under SSP5-8.5, emphasizing the severe consequences of unmitigated emissions. These shifts will elevate cooling requirements for terminals, hangars, and other airport facilities, increasing operational costs and heat stress risks. Importantly, the study introduces a scalable methodology applicable to other climate-sensitive infrastructure and emphasizes the need for dual strategies: targeted adaptation measures such as energy-efficient technologies and passive cooling and global mitigation efforts to limit long-term temperature rise. This dual focus will strengthen the resilience of Nigerian airports and offers insights applicable to broader climate adaptation planning.