Mastering emissions, masking sinks: Finnish Energy-intensive Natural Resource-based Industries low-carbon roadmaps

The role of energy intensive natural resource-based industries (ENRI) is crucial for decarbonisation. Targeting carbon neutrality by 2035, Finnish government commissioned low-carbon roadmaps from sectors of industry. The four biggest emitters, technology, chemical, forest and energy industries, roadmapped emission reductions combined with increased production. However, while the gross emissions from the industries have diminished, at the same time carbon sinks have decreased, with the upshot being no decrease in national net emissions. The failure has two roots. First, the industries have no economic incentive to not maintain high levels of wood use, as the consequences of sink loss (in LULUCF accounting) are a national responsibility. Second, the sink loss goes unaddressed in the roadmaps due to a lack of attention to natural resources and the absence of coordination. By failing to address sink loss and consequently net emissions, the roadmaps have counterintuitively contributed to endangering the carbon neutrality target.