Climate equity and decarbonization pathways: structural determinants of national green economy performance

The green economy spans interrelated domains—climate change and social equity, sectoral decarbonization, markets and ESG investment, and environmental health. Understanding how these dimensions interact is critical for guiding effective low-carbon transitions. This study applies a theory-informed, multi-method framework to examine their structural relationships using data from 160 countries, with Global Green Economy Index (GGEI) indicators as a proxy for national green economy performance. The analysis combines probabilistic clustering, Bayesian network modeling, partial least squares structural equation modeling, and importance–performance analysis to reveal systemic pathways of influence. Results show that climate change and social equity dimension is the most influential driver of national green performance, exerting both direct effects and indirect effects through sectoral decarbonization. Decarbonization emerges as a pivotal mediator, translating upstream social, environmental, and market conditions into broader sustainability outcomes. Markets and environmental health also exert direct impacts, though their influence via decarbonization is limited. These findings advance a relational perspective on green economy transitions, highlighting systemic leverage points where targeted interventions can accelerate progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action). • GEMI framework uncovers hidden interdependencies in green economy systems. • Sectoral decarbonization translates equity, health, and finance into emission cuts. • Equity and health policies can jointly accelerate SDG 7 and SDG 13 progress. • Identifies high-impact but underperforming areas for targeted interventions. • Combines probabilistic and structural models to deliver actionable policy insights.