Assessing Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset in Egypt: opportunities and risks.

Abstract This study empirically assesses the viability of Bitcoin as an alternative investment asset within the Egyptian context from 2011 to 2023. We conduct a comparative analysis of Bitcoin’s risk-return characteristics against traditional Egyptian investment vehicles: the EGX30 stock index, physical Gold, and the USD/EGP exchange rate. Utilizing historical daily data sourced from Coinbase, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, and the Central Bank of Egypt, we employ standard financial metrics including annualized returns, volatility (standard deviation), and Sharpe ratios. Correlation analysis is performed to evaluate Bitcoin’s diversification potential. Furthermore, we examine asset performance during significant periods of socio-economic stress: the 2011 Egyptian Revolution, the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020), and the EGP devaluation period (2022-2023). Our findings reveal Bitcoin’s exceptionally high volatility ( $$\sigma \approx 3.6\%$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≈</mml:mo> <mml:mn>3.6</mml:mn> <mml:mo>%</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> daily) and potential for substantial returns, yet yielding a surprisingly negative cumulative return over the entire sample period. Gold demonstrated characteristic stability ( $$\sigma \approx 1.0\%$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≈</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.0</mml:mn> <mml:mo>%</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> daily), while the EGX30 offered moderate growth amidst volatility ( $$\sigma \approx 1.6\%$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mi>σ</mml:mi> <mml:mo>≈</mml:mo> <mml:mn>1.6</mml:mn> <mml:mo>%</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> daily). Correlation analysis suggests limited diversification benefits between Bitcoin and traditional assets during certain periods. Event analysis highlights varying asset reactions, with Gold often acting as a safe haven, while Bitcoin exhibited mixed behavior. While Bitcoin presents diversification potential, its extreme volatility, negative long-term cumulative return within this sample period, and the prevailing regulatory uncertainty in Egypt necessitate careful consideration for investors seeking alternative assets in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by inflation and currency depreciation.