Impact of avocado expansion on deforestation and water availability in Michoacan, Mexico

ABSTRACT Since 1965, Mexico has dominated global avocado production, with intensification occurring in the water-scarce regions of Michoacan in recent decades, resulting in considerable environmental consequences. This study analyses changes in land use within three major avocado-producing watersheds and examines how these changes affect regional water availability. Supervised LANDSAT image classification indicated a 168% increase in avocado cultivation and a 59% reduction in forest cover from 1993 to 2023. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data (2002–2023) reveals a notable decreasing trend in total water storage (TWS) (p > 0.05) and a strong correlation (r = 0.81) between the normalised annual data for TWS, deforestation, and avocado expansion. Furthermore, employing an average water footprint of 1,425.81 m3 t−1 for avocados, this study approximates that in 2020, avocados would require roughly 5,500 Mm3 of water, significantly exceeding the estimates of 2,400 Mm3 based on officially recorded production areas and surpassing the total volume of runoff and recharge, which is 3,406.49 Mm3. Thus, conservative estimates indicate that the crop required at least 70% of the region's available freshwater. These findings highlight the unsustainable water consumption and deforestation associated with avocado production, raising urgent concerns regarding regional water security and sustainability.