Drought risk assessment for agriculture in Afghanistan

Abstract In addition to prolonged conflict and political instability, recurrent drought has severely affected Afghanistan’s rural populations and agriculture. As agriculture remains the primary source of livelihood in the country, repeated drought events have significantly constrained agricultural production, increased water stress, and weakened the national economy. A comprehensive assessment of recurring droughts risk for the agriculture system in Afghanistan is a task that remains missing to prepare and mitigate such impacts. Our study addresses this gap by assessing drought risk for agriculture using an index-based framework that integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators. The results reveal that drought occurs frequently across the country, albeit with varying intensities and patterns. Over the past two decades (2003–2023), all provinces have experienced drought episodes, with severe events observed in 2001–2002, 2008, 2011, 2018, and consecutively from 2021 to 2023. The exposure and vulnerability of the agriculture system to recurring droughts vary substantially, with particularly high levels observed in the northern, southwestern, and western zones. Likewise, agricultural systems in most provinces of these zones face moderate to high drought risks, exacerbating agricultural challenges in these regions. These findings provide spatially explicit insights into the patterns and underlying drivers of drought risk for agriculture in Afghanistan, which can support decision-making for drought mitigation and adaptation strategies. Graphical abstract