The Logic of Non-Normalization: A Comparative Analysis of Non-Signatory Arab State Responses to the Abraham Accords (2020-2026)

The Abraham Accords of 2020 brought four Arab states into formal diplomatic relations with Israel, yet the majority of Arab League members declined to join despite similar strategic incentives and substantial U.S. diplomatic pressure. This dissertation employs structured focused comparison and process tracing to examine six non-signatory Arab states—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria, Egypt, and Jordan—analyzing the domestic and international factors that shaped their divergent responses from 2020 through 2026. The research addresses a fundamental puzzle: why did states with ostensibly similar structural positions, shared regional threats, and comparable relationships with the United States make radically different choices about normalization? Drawing on foreign policy decision-making theory, two-level games frameworks, and policy diffusion literature, the study reveals three distinct types of non-normalization: strategic patience (Saudi Arabia, Oman), principled opposition (Algeria, Kuwait), and cold peace maintenance (Egypt, Jordan). The findings demonstrate that domestic political constraints systematically outweighed regional security considerations across all cases, challenging realist assumptions about foreign policy in authoritarian contexts. The Palestinian issue retained powerful mobilizational capacity despite predictions of declining salience, with the October 2023 Gaza conflict serving as a critical juncture that transformed normalization calculations and suspended Saudi-U.S.-Israeli negotiations. The research contributes to foreign policy theory by validating two-level games frameworks in non-democratic settings, advancing policy diffusion literature through systematic analysis of non-adoption mechanisms, and providing the first comprehensive comparative study of non-signatory responses to the Abraham Accords. Policy implications include insights for U.S. Middle East diplomacy regarding the limits of incentive-based pressure, Israeli strategy for regional integration, and understanding of conditions necessary for future normalization expansion, particularly Saudi accession. The dissertation establishes that non-normalization reflects not passive abstention but active policy choices grounded in domestic legitimacy imperatives, historical path dependencies, and enduring commitments to Palestinian solidarity that transcend material incentives. Keywords: Abraham Accords, non-normalization, Arab foreign policy, Saudi Arabia, two-level games, policy diffusion, Palestinian solidarity, domestic constraints