Tackling Discrepancies in Trade Data: The Harvard Growth Lab International Trade Datasets
Bilateral trade data informs foreign and domestic policy decisions, serves as a growth indicator, determines tariffs, and is the basis for financial and investment decisions for corporations. Accurate trade data translates into better decision-making. However, the raw bilateral trade data reported by UN Comtrade suffer from two structural problems: reporting differences between country partners and countries reporting in different product classification systems, which require product-level harmonization to compare data across countries. In this paper, we address these challenges by combining a mirroring technique and a data-driven concordance method. Mirroring reconciles importer and exporter differences by imputing country reliability scores and applying a weighted country-pair average to calculate the estimated trade value. We harmonize product classifications across vintages by calculating conversion weights that reflect a product's market share. The resulting publicly available datasets mitigate issues in raw trade statistics, reducing reporting inconsistencies while maintaining product-level granularity across six decades.
Authors
- Piotr Lukaszuk
- David Torun
- Annie White (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8000-8410)
- Nil Tuzcu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8929-5527)
- Muhammed A. Yıldırım (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1866-4721)
- Brendan Leonard (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7527-6760)
- Ellie Jackson
- Ricardo Hausmann
- Sebastián Bustos
Institutions
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Koç University (TR)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Harvard University Press (US)
- Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research (CH)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Scientific Data
- Published
- 2026-01-22
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06488-2
- Primary Topic
- Economic and Technological Innovation
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung