Predictive modeling of carbon dynamics in Abobral Pantanal wetlands under land use scenarios using CA-Markov and InVEST

Abstract Wetlands are recognized as important carbon sinks and stocks within the global carbon cycle. However, gaps persist in quantifying and valuing their ecosystem services, particularly under land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in complex systems such as the Brazilian Pantanal. This study assessed carbon stocks and sequestration in the Pantanal do Abobral subregion using predictive modeling and the economic valuation of ecosystem services. LULC simulations were generated with the PLUS model combined with CA-Markov, producing two future scenarios for 2030: a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario and a Protection Forest (PF) scenario aligned with Brazilian environmental legislation, emphasizing forest conservation, restrictions on native vegetation conversion, and targeted restoration actions. Under BAU, carbon stocks decline to 21.36 Tg by 2030, reflecting continued losses of native vegetation, including alluvial formations and savannas. In contrast, the PF scenario results in a net sequestration of 0.41 Tg between 2020 and 2030, accompanied by economic gains exceeding US$2 million. These findings highlight the potential of conservation-oriented strategies to enhance carbon retention and mitigate climate change. Overall, the study reinforces the role of wetlands as critical carbon sinks and demonstrates the value of integrated modeling approaches for supporting public policies aimed at ecological and economic sustainability in the Pantanal.