The AI exposure of Swiss banking employees : a replication of Felten et al.’s 2021 methodology applied to a Swiss context

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, especially large language models like ChatGPT and DeepSeek, and their steadily increasing ability to perform complex tasks, has sparked public concerns about the future of the global workforce due to their potential to reshape the current economic structures. These technologies not only provide significant productivity improvements and advantages, but they also present challenges concerning workforce disruption and job replacement. Reports in the media suggest that particularly white-collar industries, including finance and administration, are likely to undergo significant transformations. This thesis investigates the potential impact of artificial intelligence on two financial occupations in Switzerland. The chosen methodology replicates the AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) developed by Felten et al. (2021). A survey based on the abilities questionnaire from the O*NET occupation framework in the USA was used to create two job profiles: the Relationship Manager Private Banking Switzerland and the Back-Office Employee Private Banking Switzerland. Survey responses concerning the importance and level of 52 occupational abilities were collected from finance professionals working in these respective roles at a Swiss-based bank. The findings indicate that Private Banking Relationship Managers in Switzerland are significantly exposed to AI, as reasoning, information processing, and communication skills rank among their core abilities, which can increasingly be handled by generative AI. However, human-centered competencies remain critical, and perhaps will become even more important, which suggests a shift to AI-enhanced roles rather than job replacement. Private Banking Back-Office Employees in Switzerland show a lower AI exposure when compared to the Relationship Managers. As rule-based and somewhat repetitive tasks are more relevant, the likelihood of being replaced by technology in certain aspects is higher. The comparison with the findings of the replicated paper shows relatively consistent exposure patterns of cognitive abilities, which are relevant for both occupations. This thesis offers an empirical contribution by applying the AIOE framework developed by Felten et al. (2021) to a Swiss context and providing first results for two occupations in the Swiss banking sector. The findings may be beneficial for Swiss banks and other companies in the financial sector to understand current dynamics and what the future may hold. This could help align potential business investments or the planning of upskilling training.