Comparative Analysis of Low‐Carbon Transition Pathways for Municipal Solid Waste Management Systems in China and England: An Analysis Based on Life Cycle and Scenario Simulation

ABSTRACT Municipal solid waste (MSW) is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, and its management influences global warming potential (GWP). China and England pursue distinct MSW management priorities—China emphasizes reducing high‐emission disposals and advancing a recycling system, whereas England refines recycling and biological treatment within its mature infrastructure. Therefore, this study examined two countries through a life cycle assessment model covering direct, indirect, and avoided emissions and conducted a comparative analysis under four scenarios. The results indicated that MSW systems in both countries decreased GWP levels over time. Within the 40‐year timeframe, the net emissions per ton of MSW decreased by 175.5% in China and 234.7% in England. In the idealized scenario for 2050, both systems achieved net‐negative emissions, and the resource utilization treatment pathway was the key driver of the carbon footprint changes associated with the systems. This study supports the design of targeted waste‐sector emission reduction policies.