Future Cropland Exposure to Drought Frequency Under Climate Change and Land-Use Scenarios in Nigeria

Abstract The impacts of drought on agriculture are well documented, but their specific effects on cropland area remain underexplored. This study evaluates how projected changes in drought frequency (DF) may influence Nigeria’s cropland area from 2020 to 2099, relative to the historical baseline (1975–2014). An ensemble of climate projections was used to assess DF impacts for the near term (2020–2059) and far term (2060–2099) under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. Results show a general increase in cropland area of up to 0.046% across Nigeria, except in the northeastern and southern regions, where decreases of 5,391–7,189 km² are projected under SSP126. In the near future, SSP245 and SSP585 indicate cropland increase between 43,135 km² and 44,933 km², respectively. However, in the far future under SSP585, cropland exposure to DF may decrease by 220,000–650,000 km². crop land exposed to DF will increase significantly under SSP126 and SSP245, potentially covering up to 750,000 km², posing serious risks to food security. These findings highlight the need for adaptive strategies, including drought-resistant crops, improved water management, and sustainable land-use practices. Graphical Abstract The graphical abstract depicts the projected drought frequency (DF) exposure to agricultural areas using the ensemble mean of four historical GCMs. It compares historical estimates with future projections from 2010 to 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585. The upper-left panel shows the study area and input variables, highlighting the spatial distribution of ERA5 data across Nigeria. The upper-right panel presents the ensemble of the historical GCMs. The lower-left panel depicts changes in agricultural land area to future periods, indicating a general increase in average agricultural land area, except in northern Nigeria under SSP126, where a decrease is projected. The lower-right panel depicts changes in DF, with increases expected in both the near and far future across all scenarios, except a potential decrease under SSP585 in the far future. These results emphasize the need for effective water resource management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future challenges to agriculture practices in the region.