Species distribution modelling predicts the extinction of the east-pyrenean local endemic form of Pedicularis comosa: P. c. asparagoides in a near future

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly driving species towards extinction, especially in vulnerable habitats like mountain regions such as the Pyrenees. With each degree of temperature rise, the threat accelerates, endangering diverse plant species. Due to their patrimonial importance and the susceptibility of mountainous species to climate and land-use changes, the conservation of endemic species in the Pyrenees is a crucial issue. Local populations of Pedicularis comosa in the Eastern Pyrenees provide an interesting biological model for studying climate change effects on mountain plant biodiversity. Here, an endemic pink-flowered morphotype described as Pedicularis comosa subsp. asparagoides coexist with the widely distributed, yellow-flowered Pedicularis comosa subsp. comosa. Because of its local-endemism, P. c. subsp. asparagoides is threatened as it is known to occur sporadically from a restricted number of sites in the Albères, the Salines Massif and the Canigó Massif. Our study highlights that climate change is a serious threat to P.c. subsp. asparagoides. Using Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM), we found that its current habitat could become unsuitable within less than two decades, outpacing the species’ natural dispersal ability to newly suitable areas. Therefore, our findings suggest that conservation measures, such as assisted migration, are necessary to protect this unique morphotype.