The Application of Wargaming in the Nuclear Emergency Preparedness Phase to Improve Urgent and Early Phase Response Planning and Decision Making

Effective decision-making in a nuclear emergency is an essential element of achieving the goals of Emergency Preparedness and Response (EPR). Within the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) General Safety Requirements (GSR) Part 7, preparedness goals are stated generally as having adequate capabilities in place for an effective response. Past nuclear accident experience has demonstrated the complexities involved in urgent and early phase protective action decision-making which is characterized by a distinct lack of information resulting in poor or inappropriate decisions that do more harm than good. The Operational Planning Process (OPP) has been developed by many professional militaries around the world as a means of dealing with equally complex situations. In this work we explore a component of the OPP, wargaming, and apply it to the preparedness phase of a nuclear emergency to validate response planning. The work demonstrates the usefulness of the activity at improving urgent and early phase decision-making and decision-making tool development. The concept effectively addresses several lessons learned from past nuclear incidents as well as continued observations calling for improved tools to better integrate a scientific and technical understanding into a justified and optimised, all hazards emergency response environment.