Adapting to climate change: Projections and strategies for the Progo River, Indonesia

Global climate change is projected to be significant and long-lasting in the 21st century, driven by rising greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Reliable projections are crucial for reducing negative impacts, assessing water balance, managing water resources, and preparing for extreme hydrological events. This study examines the Progo River in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY), Indonesia, which drains about 17,432 km2 and is essential for regional irrigation. Climate data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal were analyzed, including projected daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for 1950-2100, climatology of the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for 2020-2039, annual precipitation for 1950-2100, and climatology of monthly precipitation for 2020-2039. All datasets are derived from CMIP6 simulations. Results indicate that while precipitation patterns are expected to remain relatively stable, temperatures in DIY will rise in the coming decades. Higher temperatures may increase evaporation, raising drought risks. To address these challenges, authorities should prioritize adaptation strategies, including river and floodplain rehabilitation, restoration of riparian buffers, integrated surface and groundwater management, conservation agriculture, and drought early warning systems.