Identifying Structural Risks in China’s Agricultural Global Value Chain Network: An Aggregated Analysis of Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan

Global agricultural value chains (GVCs) face growing structural risks that threaten long-term sustainability, yet traditional methods often miss these systemic risks. Using complex network analysis and OECD data, this study examines the structural risks in China (Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan)’s agricultural GVC network from 2001 to 2020. By analyzing both supply and demand sides, we reveal a growing asymmetry in network risks and find that risk sources are shifting from direct trading partners to hidden, indirect ones. On the upstream demand side (imports), we observe that risks have turned into a strong reliance on a few core partners, creating a rigid structure that is difficult to change. In contrast, the downstream supply side (exports) exhibits high volatility, involving frequent shifts across uncertain new markets. These results suggest that agricultural security policies should shift from passive crisis response to active structural optimization. This study aims to provide a practical reference for China and other economies seeking to build a safer and more stable agricultural trade system.