Where might freshwater species persist in an arid state? Assessing aquatic refugia in New Mexico, U.S.A.

Climate change is impacting freshwater ecosystems, which contain many species already threatened by anthropogenic activities. To help managers protect imperiled species, we developed a framework for assessing the potential for aquatic refugia within the state of New Mexico, U.S.A. We used literature review and state-generated lists of sensitive species and habitats to develop five taxa-specific habitat groups as targets for assessment (cold-water fish habitat, perennial streams, perennial water amphibian and reptile habitat, ephemeral catchments, and springs). We then selected sets of indicators representing macrorefugia (areas of relative climate stability) and hydrorefugia (local features that protect aquatic ecosystems from changes in temperature and precipitation) for each habitat group. Refugia scores, generated from standardized indicator values, showed considerable variation in refugia potential among habitat groups and geographic locations. In most cases, areas with greatest potential for hydrorefugia were separate from those with greatest potential for macrorefugia. Mountainous regions typically scored highest for potential refugia, highlighting the importance of these areas to a variety of aquatic species. Our results can be used to identify additional areas for conservation and to inform species-specific management plans.