Quantifying the Uncertainties in Projecting Extreme Coastal Hazards: The Overlooked Role of the Radius of Maximum Wind Parameterizations

Parametric tropical cyclone models are widely used to generate large wind field ensembles for assessing extreme storm tides and wave heights. The radius of maximum wind (RMW) is a key model parameter and is commonly estimated using empirical formulas. This study shows that uncertainty introduced by the choice of RMW formulas has been largely overlooked in tropical cyclone risk assessments. Using the Pearl River Estuary as a case study, historical wind fields (1981–2024) were generated with a parametric tropical cyclone model combined with eight empirical RMW formulas. Storm tides and wave heights during tropical cyclone events were simulated using a coupled wave–current model (ROMS–SWAN) and analyzed with extreme value theory. The results indicate that, for estuarine nearshore zones, the 100-year return period of water level and significant wave height vary by up to 1.26 m and 1.54 m, respectively, across all the selected RMW formulas. Joint probability analysis further shows that RMW uncertainty can shift the joint return period of the same compound storm tide and wave event from 100 years to 10 years. For an individual extreme event, differences in the RMW formula alone can produce deviations up to 2.11 m in peak storm tide levels and 3.8 m in significant wave heights. Such differences can also change the duration of extreme sea states by 13 h. These results highlight that RMW formula selection is a critical uncertainty factor, and related uncertainty should be considered in large-sample tropical cyclone hazard assessment and engineering design.