Cereal yield’s effect on greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa: examining the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis

Cereal crop farming in South Africa is critical in supplying staple foods and for generating export revenue. However, intensified farming practices are tied to significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, challenging national climate goals. This study employs the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to analyze time-series data (1961–2021) and identify the cereal yield threshold where emissions begin to decline. The main goal is to find a turning point that balances food security with climate mitigation actions. Employing both parametric and nonparametric techniques, the analysis finds an inverted U-shaped link between cereal yield and emissions, with a turning point at 3.40 tonnes per hectare. The results confirm a nonlinear relationship, with linear and quadratic yield terms statistically significant at the 1 % and 5 % levels, respectively. Above the turning point, higher cereal yields correlate with lower emissions, supporting the feasibility of sustainable intensification strategies. These findings reveal a crucial emissions- reduction benchmark, linking mitigation measures with policy and supporting yield-linked carbon credit schemes to promote sustainable agriculture and lower emissions. The study advances EKC research in agriculture and offers actionable insights for integrating food security with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This research contributes to discussions on sustainable development and climate-smart agriculture.