A system dynamics framework for untangling solar radiation modification perceptions in the Global South

Abstract The escalating climate crisis has intensified the focus on solar radiation modification (SRM) owing to insufficient global mitigation efforts. While the Global South is disproportionately vulnerable to climate impacts, its perspective remains underrepresented in the complex governance debate. This study proposes a system dynamics (SD) conceptual framework to map and analyze the intricate structure of SRM perceptions in the Global South, distinct from linear polling methods. Drawing on the literature and expert stakeholder engagement in Brazil, we constructed a causal loop diagram to explicate the feedback mechanisms driving support for or opposition to SRM. The resulting framework reveals critical dynamic structures, specifically the ‘mitigation deterrence’ reinforcing loop and the tension between ‘rapid cooling benefits’ and ‘equity concerns.’ This study demonstrates that SD is a vital ‘sense-making’ tool for bridging the gap between scientific discourse and public understanding, offering a pathway for more informed and equitable global governance.