Comparative analysis of gastric cancer risk attribution (1990-2021) and 2050 burden projection in China, Japan, and South Korea: an age-period-cohort modeling approach based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study

This study finds that from 1990 to 2021, ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR of GC in China, Japan, and South Korea showed a marked decline, yet absolute disease burdens differed. China's burden remained heavy due to its large population and rapid aging, while Japan and South Korea made substantive progress via efficient screening. Risk attribution analysis revealed smoking as China's main risk factor and high-salt diets as more impactful in Japan and South Korea. Projections suggest a continued decline in disease burden in all three countries by 2050.