Spatial–Temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Territorial Space Conflicts in Rapid Urbanization Areas from the Perspective of Suitability: An Empirical Study of Jinan City, China

The precise identification of territorial space conflicts (TSCs) and their driving mechanisms is key to enhancing spatial security governance. Taking Jinan City as a case study, this research evaluates territorial space suitability across production, living, and ecological dimensions, proposes an empirical TSC identification model, and employs GeoDetector to analyze spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms. The results indicated that (1) from 2000 to 2020, significant spatial heterogeneity characterized the suitability of production–living–ecological spaces in Jinan City. High suitability zones of production and living space expanded in the northern plain along the Yellow River and central piedmont plain, respectively, while those of ecological space contracted in the southern mountainous and hilly areas. (2) Significant spatiotemporal variations in territorial space conflicts (TSCs) were observed in Jinan City over the past two decades. Intense conflicts dominated production–living and production–ecological space interactions, while moderate conflicts were prevalent in living–ecological and production–living–ecological space interactions. Production–living space conflict zones expanded, living–ecological space conflict zones contracted, and production–ecological and production–living–ecological space conflict zones showed consistent expansion trends. (3) The spatiotemporal evolution of territorial space conflicts is jointly driven by the natural environment, geographical location, social economy, and regional policies. The interaction of driving factors exhibited significant dual-factor and nonlineal enhancement effects. Finally, this study provides some scientific references for the comprehensive management and pattern optimization of territorial space in Jinan City.