Research on the Complex Network Structure and Spatiotemporal Evolution of Interprovincial Virtual Water Flows in China

Water resources constitute a foundational strategic resource, and the efficiency of their spatial allocation profoundly impacts national sustainable development. This study integrates multi-regional input–output modeling, complex network analysis, and exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis methods to systematically examine the patterns, network structures, and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of virtual water flows across 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2023. Findings reveal the following: Virtual water flows underwent a three-stage evolution—“expansion–convergence–stabilization”—forming a “core–periphery” structure spatially: eastern coastal and North China urban clusters as input hubs, while East–Northeast–Northwest China served as primary output regions; The virtual water flow network progressively tightened and segmented, evidenced by increased network density, shorter average path lengths, and enhanced clustering coefficients and transitivity. PageRank analysis reveals significant Matthew effects and structural lock-in within the network; LISA time paths indicate stable spatial structures in most provinces, yet dynamic characteristics are prominent in node provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu. Spatiotemporal transition analysis further demonstrates high overall system resilience (Type0 transitions accounting for 47%), while abrupt transitions in provinces like Hebei and Liaoning are closely associated with national strategies and industrial restructuring. This study provides theoretical and empirical support for establishing a coordinated allocation mechanism between physical and virtual water resources and formulating differentiated regional water governance policies.