Characterizing New York State renewable energy curtailment to support decarbonization technology growth

Abstract The speed and scale required to transition to a clean energy grid requires an integrated approach to address challenges in variability of energy resources and grid load. This research offers novel insights into how New York State (NYS) can strategically use excess renewable energy, reframing curtailment as an opportunity to advance decarbonization goals. The focus on NYS is motivated by a combination of its substantial energy demand stemming from large population centers, sizable offshore wind energy pipeline, enormous renewable energy potential, and ambitious clean energy targets. To quantify the extent to which future renewable energy supply may exceed demand, grid load data is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution wind energy datasets that include wind speeds at hub heights relevant to modern wind turbines. A capacity expansion model estimates the levelized cost of energy and battery capacity buildout needed to meet electrification, renewable generation, and emissions reduction targets set by the NYS Climate Act through 2050. It also reports the resulting quantity and temporal variation of curtailed energy for each 5 year milestone. The study further assesses the implications of using this excess energy to fulfill requirements for emerging technologies such as green hydrogen electrolysis and carbon capture systems using a set of curtailment utilization and supply curves. These results can inform grid planning and infrastructure investment decisions aimed at reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors. Ultimately, this study seeks to enhance grid planning to deliver reliable, low-cost clean energy and support a fully decarbonized economy.