Explicit spatial–temporal scenarios of food security in a West-African socio-ecological system under climate change

Food security is a key facet of a sustainable society, while some threats, such as climate change and food riots may unsettle any society. Some aspects of food security such as food production and distribution are inherently spatial, thus requiring spatialized methods to study it. In this study, we introduce Discrete Ecosystem Evolution Rules (DEER), which is a spatial generalization of the EDEN framework developed in environmental sciences. Based on extensive expert knowledge and literature, we developed both spatially implicit and explicit models to assess the impacts of climate change on food security dynamics in a complex West-African social-ecological system (Dano, Burkina Faso). Comparing these two models allowed highlighting the role of spatial structure on food security degradation and recovery over the long term. Results showed that the impacts of climate change on food security were mediated by water availability and soil degradation. The spatial model provided a finer understanding of food security dynamics by highlighting unexpected sequences of events. These insights highlight the relevance of a spatial modeling framework to get a proper understanding of food security and, more generally, of social-ecological dynamics.