Community college student success: A tale of cohort and institutional characteristics, market factors and enrollment status

Abstract This research investigates institutional‐level retention rates at 784 community colleges in the United States over a 16‐year period (2004–2019). We analyse institution‐level panel data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) and employ a fixed‐effects method to estimate how institutional‐level retention rates relate to the time‐varying student‐body characteristics of 15 entering cohorts, time‐varying institutional‐level characteristics and actions and economic conditions. Consistent with previous research, we consider the student body as a whole (full‐ and part‐time students combined) and find that student‐body demographic composition and financial assistance are associated with institutional‐level retention rates. Institutional time‐varying faculty composition and offerings, as well as institutional spending and tuition, are also linked to retention rates. County‐level market conditions drive retention rates. Following further statistical tests, we extend our institutional‐level analysis to the full‐ and part‐time student bodies separately to identify factors linked to improved retention for each. Our results identify inconsistencies between the aggregate student‐body analysis (the standard in the literature) and the individual full‐/part‐time analyses. Specifically, some results that are significant in the aggregate sample are no longer significant in the individual studies. Other estimates have opposite signs for the full‐ and part‐time population. Furthermore, some time‐varying characteristics are statistically significant in the individual population studies, but not in the aggregate analysis. These findings open the conversation about the best way to study community college institutional‐level retention rates to inform both campus managers and policymakers in their strategic, financial and managerial decision‐making processes.