From Identification to Guiding Action: A Systematic Heuristic to Prioritise Drivers of Change for Water Management

Global water management faces a critical challenge: whilst scholarly consensus recognises that multiple, interacting drivers fundamentally shape water availability and management capacity, operational governance frameworks fail to systematically incorporate this understanding. This disconnect is particularly acute in public good contexts where incomplete knowledge, diverse stakeholder values, and statutory planning mandates create distinct challenges. Using Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin as a pilot case, this research develops and demonstrates a rapid, policy-relevant heuristic for identifying, prioritising, and incorporating drivers of change in complex socio-ecological water systems. Through structured participatory deliberation with 70 experts spanning research, policy, industry, and community sectors across three sequential workshops and 15 semi-structured interviews, we systematically identified key drivers across environmental, governance, economic, social, and legacy dimensions. A risk and sensitivity assessment framework enabled prioritisation based on impact, vulnerability, and urgency. Climate change, drought, water quality events, and cumulative impacts emerged as the highest-priority future drivers, with climate change acting as a threat multiplier, whilst governance drivers show declining relative significance. Using these methodological innovations, we synthesise the I-PLAN heuristic: five interdependent dimensions (Integrative Knowledge, Prioritisation for Management, Linkages between Drivers, Adaptive Agendas, and Normative Collaboration) that provide water planners with a transferable, operational tool for driver identification and bridging to planning and management in data-sparse contexts.