Business recovery of female-owned enterprises after urban floods: A propensity score matching analysis in the Bangkok metropolitan region

Urban flooding presents escalating challenges to business continuity in rapidly urbanizing areas, such as the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) in Thailand. However, the relationship between gender and the capacity to recover from disasters in urban businesses remains largely unexplored. This study investigates gender disparities in business recovery after flood events, focusing on the recovery trajectories of female-owned businesses (FOBs) compared with those of male-owned businesses (MOBs) following the major floods in 2011, 2017, and 2022, highlighting the structural inequalities that shape post-disaster trajectories. Drawing on a structured survey of 465 enterprises in flood-prone areas of the BMR, the analysis incorporates detailed measures of firm characteristics, flood exposure, and post-disaster response characteristics. To estimate the causal impact of gender ownership on recovery time, propensity score matching (PSM) was implemented using multiple algorithms with robust covariate balance achieved across business, and disaster impact variables. Kernel-based matching yielded robust results: FOBs required 31.33 additional days to recover following the 2011 flood ( = 0.0002), declining to 11.89 days in 2017 ( = 0.0016) and 7.23 days in 2022 ( = 0.0059). Critically, the persistence of gender gaps across all three flood events, even in the less severe 2022 flood (7.23 days), provides consistent evidence that gender inequality in business recovery is systematic rather than event-specific. The study underscores the need for targeted, gender-sensitive disaster risk reduction and recovery policies, including improved financial inclusion, effective risk communication, and tailored support mechanisms to enhance resilience and promote equitable recovery outcomes in urban economic contexts. • This study provides robust causal evidence of gender disparities in post-flood business recovery in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, analyzing 465 enterprises affected by major floods in 2011, 2017, and 2022. • Kernel propensity score matching balanced business characteristics, flood exposure, and financial capacity between female- and male-owned businesses. • Female-owned businesses required 7-31 additional days to recover compared to matched male-owned businesses across three major flood events; while absolute disparities narrowed over time, gender recovery inequality remained statistically significant and persistent. • The findings highlight the need for gender-responsive disaster risk reduction policies, including improved financial inclusion, targeted post-disaster support, and equitable access to recovery resources for female entrepreneurs in urban settings.