Probabilistic Load Forecasting for Green Marine Shore Power Systems: Enabling Efficient Port Energy Utilization Through Monte Carlo Analysis

The global shipping industry is surging ahead, and with it, a quiet revolution is taking place on the water: marine lithium-ion batteries have emerged as a crucial clean energy carrier, powering everything from ferries to container ships. When these vessels dock, they increasingly rely on shore power charging systems to refuel—essentially, plugging in instead of idling on diesel. But predicting how much power they will need is not straightforward. Think about it: different ships, varying battery sizes, mixed charging technologies, and unpredictable port stays all come into play, creating a load profile that is random, uneven, and often concentrated—a real headache for grid planners. So how do you forecast something so inherently variable? This study turned to the Monte Carlo method, a probabilistic technique that thrives on uncertainty. Instead of seeking a single fixed answer, the model embraces randomness, feeding in real-world data on supply modes, vessel types, battery capacity, and operational hours. Through repeated random sampling and load simulation, it builds up a realistic picture of potential charging demand. We ran the numbers for a simulated fleet of 400 vessels, and the results speak for themselves: load factors landed at 0.35 for conventional AC shore power, 0.39 for high-voltage DC, 0.33 for renewable-based systems, 0.64 for smart microgrids, and 0.76 when energy storage joined the mix. Notice how storage and microgrids really smooth things out? What does this mean in practice? Well, it turns out that Monte Carlo is not just academically elegant, it is practically useful. By quantifying uncertainty and delivering load factors within confidence intervals, the method offers port operators something precious: a data-backed foundation for decision-making. Whether it is sizing infrastructure, designing tariff incentives, or weighing the grid impact of different shore power setups, this approach adds clarity. In the bigger picture, that kind of insight matters. As ports worldwide strive to support cleaner shipping and align with climate goals—China’s “dual carbon” ambition being a case in point—achieving a reliable handle on charging demand is not just technical; it is strategic. Here, probabilistic modeling shifts from a simulation exercise to a tangible tool for greener, more resilient port energy management.