Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Orbital Precession and Tidal Decay via Transit Timing and Occultation Timing

Abstract Short-period exoplanets may exhibit orbital precession driven by several different processes, including tidal interactions with their host stars and secular interactions with additional planets. This motion manifests as periodic shifts in the timing between transits, which may be detectable via high-precision and long-baseline transit- and occultation-timing measurements. Detecting precession and attributing it to a particular process may constrain the tidal responses of planets and point to the presence of otherwise undetected perturbers. However, over relatively short timescales, orbital decay driven by the same tidal interactions can induce transit-timing signals similar to the precession signal, and distinguishing between the two processes requires robust assessment of the model statistics. In this context, occultation observations can help distinguish the two signals, but determining the precision and scheduling of observations sufficient to meaningfully contribute can be complicated. In this study, we expand on earlier work focused on searches for tidal decay to map out simple metrics that facilitate detection of precession and how to distinguish it from tidal decay. We discuss properties for a short-period exoplanet system that can maximize the likelihood for detecting such signals and prospects for contributions from citizen-science observations.