Urban cycling: A non-linear analysis of transport amenities and socio-demographic and health variables

Bicycle use in urban environments is a feasible and beneficial alternative to motor vehicles. However, in Spain, bicycles are used less than other means of transport. This study aimed to predict cycling in urban settings through the presence of cycling facilities and car or public transport options around residences, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, perceived health, and physical activity levels of residents in the four most populated Spanish cities. A total of 957 individuals completed a questionnaire via the Maptionnaire platform. After processing the data, a chi-square test was applied to identify significant differences between bicycle use and sociodemographic variables, and a decision tree was built to predict urban cycling. Gender and socioeconomic status showed significant differences in bicycle use. The most important differentiating variable in the decision tree was leisure-time physical activity. The decision tree produced 20 individual profiles, five of which included the largest number of participants, all non-cyclists. The most relevant variables indicated that the availability of cycling infrastructure was the strongest predictor, followed by leisure-time physical activity, age, and income level. Being physically active during leisure time and having a medium-to-high socioeconomic status were associated with bicycle use for commuting, whereas individuals aged 41 years or older did not cycle. Furthermore, women and those with higher BMI exhibited lower levels of bicycle use. To effectively promote cycling in cities, transport-related environmental amenities should not be addressed in isolation but integrated with the characteristics of residents, considering especially gender differences.