Do Ukrainians still prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost?

Abstract Do Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions to Russia as found by Dill et al. (2024a) in July 2022? Or have their attitudes toward resistance changed given mounting costs and uncertain benefits of self-defense against Russia’s aggression? Between December 2024 and January 2025, we presented the original and a modified conjoint experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2,580 Ukrainian citizens, sampled from largely the same locations as before. We find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory meanwhile has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians and less war-affected respondents remain comparatively more willing to resist Russia’s aggression than other respondents. Locations’ exposure to war-related violence is not associated with changes in Ukrainians’ attitudes since 2022. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support for a potential political settlement in Ukraine.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Peace Research
Published
2026-01-20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1093/jopres/xjaf019
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Political Conflict and Governance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Do Ukrainians still prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost?

Marnie Howlett, Carl Müller‐Crepon, Janina Dill
1 citations
Journal of Peace Research
Political Conflict and Governance
article

Do Ukrainians still prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost?

Marnie Howlett, Carl Müller‐Crepon, Janina Dill
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Abstract Do Ukrainians still categorically reject political and territorial concessions to Russia as found by Dill et al. (2024a) in July 2022? Or have their attitudes toward resistance changed given mounting costs and uncertain benefits of self-defense against Russia’s aggression? Between December 2024 and January 2025, we presented the original and a modified conjoint experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2,580 Ukrainian citizens, sampled from largely the same locations as before. We find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory meanwhile has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians and less war-affected respondents remain comparatively more willing to resist Russia’s aggression than other respondents. Locations’ exposure to war-related violence is not associated with changes in Ukrainians’ attitudes since 2022. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support for a potential political settlement in Ukraine.

Journal of Peace ResearchVol. 63(2)
Government of the United Kingdom (GB), Science Oxford (GB), London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 86%
Political Conflict and Governance
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Do Ukrainians still prefer self-defense against Russia at any cost? — Marnie Howlett, Carl Müller‐Crepon, et al. · Journal of Peace Research (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS