Production Tax Credits Promote U.S. Wind Power Development with a Rush to Develop Before They Expire

A statistical analysis of wind power development in each U.S. state from 2000–2022 shows that the Production Tax Credit strongly promoted wind power development, especially when it was due to expire, and producers rushed to qualify. This implies that the Inflation Reduction Act should also have an important effect in promoting wind power, with an exaggerated effect when developers perceive that tax credits will be discontinued. Physical wind power potential is positively related to wind power development among states. States with high potential selectively pass Renewable Portfolio Standards, but they have no statistically significant influence on capacity developed among the subset of states participating in wind power development. No other policy variables considered—natural gas prices, state permitting systems, electrical restructuring, enrollment in regional transmission organizations—displayed any practically useful association with wind power development nationally over time or among states.