Asymmetric Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Employment through the Lens of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: Evidence from Turkey

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of climate change on agricultural employment in Turkey by employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model within the framework of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF). The study, using quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2024Q4, considers temperature and precipitation shocks as environmental risk variables and examines their short- and long-run effects on agricultural employment as a key livelihood outcome. Empirical results indicate that positive temperature shocks significantly increase employment in the long run, while negative precipitation shocks reduce it. These effects have been found to be asymmetric both in terms of direction and magnitude. The findings also emphasize the mediating role of trade intensity and mechanization, suggesting that technological transformation in agriculture may replace labor in the long run. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing the first SLFbased time series evidence of the asymmetric climate-employment link in Turkey. Unlike previous studies focused on productivity or output, this research directly addresses the labor dimension of climate change. Policy implications highlight the need for climate-resilient labor planning, regionally adaptable employment support mechanisms, and sustainable rural development strategies. To enhance the resilience of the rural workforce under increasing climatic fluctuations, the study suggests the implementation of specialized climate insurance, seasonal worker protection, and balanced mechanization policies.