Creation of Manufacturing Cost Estimation Surrogate Models for Application in a Cross-Organizational Design Workflow

Estimating manufacturing cost is a crucial step in evaluating the value of an aircraft design. However, this estimation is often performed only after the design and optimization phases are completed. In this paper, cost estimation is captured in surrogate models, making it available early in the design process. Using surrogate models for cost estimation also addresses intellectual property and complexity challenges. The use case presented in this paper focuses on a seaplane wing. The surrogate models are built using results from a Design of Experiments approach. To obtain these results, a knowledge-based engineering tool is employed to model the seaplane wing, and an open-source cost model is used to estimate the cost. The surrogate model itself is created using a Gaussian process model. Its sensitivity is analyzed, revealing that some design variables can be omitted while maintaining good model quality. Finally, the surrogate model is prepared for integration into a cross-organizational design workflow for the seaplane wing. The developed surrogate model proves useful in addressing intellectual property and complexity issues.