Evaluating the robustness of community-managed irrigation systems compared to government-managed systems under climate shocks in Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract This study assessed the impact of climate shocks and communication on farmers’ decisions and compared the government and community-managed irrigation systems concerning resource management. This research included an irrigation behavioral game experiment involving farmers from the Punjab province of Pakistan. Using stratified random sampling, farmers were grouped to represent both government- and community-managed irrigation systems, with each of the 20 groups comprising five participants and engaging in 30 rounds of the experiment. Multi-level mixed-effect linear regression was employed to assess the effects of external shocks and communication on farmers’ irrigation extraction decisions. Additionally, graphical analysis was applied to assess the impact on irrigation resources, while robustness was evaluated using Ostrom’s design principles. The graphical analyses revealed that farmers made greater investments under both communication and climate-induced water scarcity scenarios. Moreover, farmers in the community-managed irrigation system invested more in resource generation than their counterparts in the government-managed system. The regression results demonstrated that contributions, trust, and earnings were the most crucial factors in determining the farmers’ extraction decisions. The community-managed irrigation system was found to be more robust than the government-managed system, making it a compelling recommendation for promotion.