Assessing the Climatic Vulnerability of the Micrurus sangilensis (Niceforo Maria, 1942) under Future Scenarios

The Vulnerable Micrurus sangilensis common known as the Santander coral snake distributes in dry and montane forests, ecosystems under severe anthropogenic pressure in northeastern Colombia. Its already fragmented habitat may exacerbate risks in vegetation structure due to climate change. We assessed whether the current distribution of the snake may be altered under different scenarios with climate change in the 2040-2060 years; aiming to recognize conservation priority areas. With ecological niche modeling we calculated current and obtained values of stability in the distribution range of the species for the most conservative emission scenarios of socio-economic pathways (SSP) 126, and 245; and the expected greater emissions 585 within five different global circulation models. We also escalated an index of vulnerability to land use change to 2050 in the remaining areas for the species, detecting prioritizing conservation zones. Our findings reveal a nearly 25% consistency of loss in the three SSP scenarios, while gaining stability varies between different GCMs. Over 37% of remaining suitable areas were categorized as highly vulnerable to land-use change, especially at elevations between 900 and 2000 m. We emphasize the need to integrate M. sangilensis habitats into Colombia’s protected area network, restore degraded ecosystems, and establish ecological corridors to mitigate fragmentation. While the most vulnerable to changing areas appear to be the ones with critical requirements for conservation; we call attention to aim conservation efforts in the low and middle vulnerable to change regions, those with lower likelihood to be modified in the near future.